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    8/16/2009

    赌博 与 人生

    这里赌博的定义是, 在存在未知信息, 不能100%确定结果的情况下, 做出决定。
     
    人生是个大的赌局:
    无法知道明天会发生什么;
    存在可能, 出现掌控外的事件, 影响最终结果;
    不论是否愿意, 都不能逃脱, 必须下注, 或者是自愿的, 或者是被动的。
     
    所以说, 七分在天。
     
    面对赌局, 应该怎么办:
    1. 在现有信息情况下, 下注最有利的方面;
    2. 随时随机应变
    3. 选择成功概率更高的时间, 无数次的重复; 那么, 科学保证, 最终受益答疑损失
    (参见索罗斯, 巴菲特, 与精算投资)
     
    人生是个大赌局, 做应该做的事。
     
     
     
     
     

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